2024-25 Season Preview
Introduction
It’s near Thanksgiving time and you know what that means. The 2024-25 FIS Cross Country season is here! In this post, I will give my predictions for the upcoming World Cup season based on historical relationships between Elo scores and World Cup points.
The scope of this post is just the individual World Cup season. The World Championships will have a post of their own when late February comes around.
Outside the Races
Schedule
The season is pretty milquetoast in terms of travel. With no races outside of Western Europe and the entire Tour de Ski taking place in only two locations (both inside Italy), there is nothing too special with the schedule. The one location that did not fit this criteria, Nove Mesto, was recently moved to Cogne, Italy due to funding issues. Three of the four sites that have not been on the annual rotation have all hosted recently as well. Cogne last hosted in 2019, Engadin 2021, and Tallinn in 2023. Les Rousses is the sole new venue for the season (were supposed to host in 2022, but cancelled due to COVID). And of course the big change of the season is no Holmenkollen 50km
In terms of what’s on the schedule, this is the breakdown:
- Total races: 30
- Sprint: 11
- Classic: 5
- Freestyle: 6
- Distance: 19
- Classic: 9
- Freestyle: 8
- Skiathlon: 2
- Individual: 9
- Mass Start: 9
- Pursuit: 1
- Classic: 14
- Freestyle: 14
Nothing too crazy here, but a couple things to note. There are two skiathlons in the World Cup season, in the past there has been 1 at most. Here is how it compares to last year
- Total races: 33
- Sprint: 13
- Classic: 6
- Freestyle: 7
- Distance: 20
- Classic: 10
- Freestyle: 9
- Skiathlon: 1
- Individual: 9
- Mass Start: 10
- Pursuit: 1
- Classic: 16
- Freestyle: 16
And for proportions of overall races between this season, last season, and the last 5 seasons on average.
| Category | 2024-25 | 2023-24 | 2019-2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Races | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sprint | 0.3667 | 0.3939 | 0.3955 |
| Sprint Classic | 0.1667 | 0.1818 | 0.1791 |
| Sprint Freestyle | 0.2000 | 0.2121 | 0.2164 |
| Distance | 0.6333 | 0.6061 | 0.6045 |
| Distance Classic | 0.3000 | 0.3030 | 0.2836 |
| Distance Freestyle | 0.2667 | 0.2727 | 0.2910 |
| Distance Skiathlon | 0.0667 | 0.0303 | 0.0299 |
| Distance Individual | 0.3000 | 0.2727 | 0.2463 |
| Distance Mass Start | 0.3000 | 0.3030 | 0.2537 |
| Distance Pursuit | 0.0333 | 0.0303 | 0.1045 |
| Classic | 0.4667 | 0.4848 | 0.4627 |
| Freestyle | 0.4667 | 0.4848 | 0.5075 |
As we can see, if there is any bias for this season compared to average, it is for distance racers. Yet, in the end the effect will likely be minimal over the course of an entire season. The difference comes out to roughly one fewer sprint race than normal and one more distance race. Still, as we we saw from the overall last year, any amount of difference can amount to a totally different outcome. Those two races have a potential 200 point swing in favor of more distance oriented skiers.