Breakthrough Potential
In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to break through this year, give an age analysis of the field including the Russians, and predict what it will take for Klæbo to lose the overall World Cup.
By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 50% of the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2002, this has only been done by around 50 men and 50 women. For this analysis, I looked at the characteristics (age, experience, Elos, etc.) of all skiers who broke that 50% barrier for the first time in their career, and then created a model to apply to the current skiers who have not accomplished the feat. Here are some of the top contenders.
Last season Edvin Anger and Astrid Øyre Slind were the breakthroughs.
Men
Ben Ogden (USA, 25)
In terms of eye test and notoriety, Ogden has already broken through as a skier. Unfortunately, his results have been incredibly inconsistent since 2023. On one hand his career has been a success. He has two top-10 Overalls and a U-23 title. On the other hand, his individual race honors consist of only two third places and many more finishes outside the top 30, and he has been atrocious in major championships with zero top-10s. What puts Ogden on the top of this list is his versatility, willingness to race, and prior bad luck that certainly cannot last throughout his entire career. To expand on these points, Ogden is one of the few true all-around skiers in the world. His World Cup podiums were a Sprint Freestyle and a 10km Individual Freestyle, and he is equal in his classic ability to skate. Then his availability has been hampered by illness, first mono and then the flu. As he matures as a racer and improves his energy management, it is only a matter of time before Ogden strings together a top-five Overall season.
Gus Schumacher (USA, 25)
Schumacher has been the great American hope since 2019 when he anchored the US team to gold at the Nordic Junior World Ski Championships 4x5km relay, something unprecedented for American skiing. After a promising start to his senior career, Schumacher struggled in 2022 and 2023 before regaining his mojo in 2024 with the all-time upset win in Minneapolis. Since then he has been making incremental progress, becoming more consistent, and even finished second in a World Cup race last year in Falun. His sprinting ability has also jumped up a level in recent years. If Gus wants to break through this year, however, he needs to be even more consistent and improve his classic skiing.
Mika Vermeulen (AUT, 26)
Vermeulen made a serious jump in 2023-24 and made more improvements last season. Consistency defines his results in distance races, never finishing worse than 13th last season. However, his sprint ability gets him no points on the World Cup circuit, and he rarely makes the podium in distance races. Still, with high placing in the Tour de Ski, a high start rate, and high enough finishes in the distance races, Vermeulen could reach that 50% barrier this season in a similar fashion to Simen Hegstad Krüger in 2020.
Hugo Lapalus (FRA, 27)
Everything said for Vermeulen can be said for Lapalus. Getting better every year, consistent, good at both classic and freestyle, and cannot sprint. If he wants to be near the top of the standings, however, he needs to find ways to make the podium consistently. Lots of top-10 finishes, but only two podiums in 2024-25.
Honorable Mentions
Mathis Desloges, William Poromaa
Ladies
Katherina Hennig (GER, 29)
It is not likely any woman has a breakthrough season in 2025-26, but Katherina Hennig is one who has a chance. With her teammate Victoria Carl suspended for doping violations this year, Hennig will have to lead the German squad. Her 2025 season was about average for her career, with plenty of top-10 finishes. One bonus for Hennig is that she is good enough to make the heats of sprints, which will bump up her chances. Still, she has not had a high start percentage in recent years, and with it being an Olympics year, I would not expect that to change this season.
Teresa Stadlober (AUT, 32)
Stadlober has had an incredibly consistent career. Since 2017, she has finished no better than eighth in the Overall and, besides an outlier of a 2019 season, no worse than 17th. Her individual results are likewise consistent, having only five career podiums, no victories, but almost always finishing between fifth and 15th in distance races. Like Hennig, I’m not really expecting Stadlober to suddenly have a season that launches her into the top five. However, Stadlober seems to have her best results at the Olympics, so maybe we can expect a better-than-usual season from her.
Emma Ribom (SWE, 27)
Emma Ribom, known for being a sprinter, has improved her distance skiing in recent seasons. Last year she placed in the top 20 in 8/9 distance races she entered. However, her biggest weakness for World Cup contention is that she is a Swede, meaning fewer World Cup starts (especially in sprinting), and likely no Tour de Ski. If she competed for a different country, she would not be on this list.
Nadine Fähndrich (SUI, 30)
Like Ribom, Fähndrich is a sprinting star who has improved her distance skiing in recent seasons. Unlike Ribom, she lacks consistency in her distance results. If she finds her groove more often in distance skiing in 2025-26 and continues to show up to every World Cup, Fähndrich may have the best chance at eclipsing that 50% threshold.
Jasmi Joensuu (FIN, 29)
Joensuu turned the corner on her career in 2025 from someone who never made it past the quarterfinals in sprints to a regular in the finals and the Sprint Crystal Globe winner. Not only did her sprinting improve, but her distance skiing was solidly in the pack. While not a regular starter for the Finnish distance squad, she did finish with two top-10s. Expect distance skiing to play a bigger role for Joensuu in 2026 as she will be a key player on the Olympic relay team for Finland. If it does, expect her to have a breakthrough season.
Honorable Mentions
Lotta Udnes Weng, Moa Ilar, Nora Sanness