2025-26 Cross-Country Preview Part 2: World Cup Standings

World Cup Standings Predictions

Background

In Part 2, I will be giving the overall standings predictions as a proportion of maximum World Cup points as well as the odds for each skier to get top-1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 in the overall World Cup.

The Elo data is calculated from race data going back to 1920. Race data includes World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Winter Games as well as a handful of Holmenkollen races prior to the World Cup era that began in 1982. Elo scores are calculated for overall Elo, as further broken down into distance, distance classic, distance freestyle, sprint, sprint classic, sprint freestyle, classic, and freestyle.

In addition to Elo scores, I also considered the percent of maximum points a skier had in the previous season, their age, and World Cup racing experience. The skiers included in these lists are the ones who competed in the 2024-25 World Cup season and are not listed on the retirement list on the 2024-25 FIS Cross-Country World Cup Wikipedia page. Unfortunately, this means the Russians are not included in these predictions, although if you keep reading, they will be listed.

One thing that should be considered when viewing this data is that it only considers historical results and how one’s current Elo scores and recent race history predict their outcome in the following season. It cannot predict illness, injury, fatigue, off-season training, or a number of other factors when determining its results. For example, while Klæbo is the runaway favorite for the overall World Cup, the possibility of skipping the Tour de Ski, missing weekends to prepare for a major championship, and the new scoring method for World Cup races that favor participation over winning, all mean that there is a chance for these to be way off for any one skier.

Season Points Predictions

Men

Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (NOR, 29)

Last season Klæbo crowned himself as the greatest male cross-country skier of all time in 2025 after winning six gold medals at the World Championships in Trondheim and his fifth Overall World Cup. With the Russians gone and Klæbo still in his prime, if the focus is there, Klæbo could easily tie Bjørn Dæhlie’s six Crystal Globes this season, all before the age of 30. The “if” there is pretty big though. Cross-country skiing notoriously has the toughest scoring breakdown when it comes to missing races. If Klæbo is ill, injured, or misses the Tour de Ski, all of which he has experienced in the past, he is prone to lose the World Cup. Additionally, if he has a skiing hangover following his historic World Championships in Trondheim, it is possible he is upset again by someone like Amundsen.

Harald Østberg Amundsen (NOR, 27)

Amundsen surprised everyone in 2024 when he won the Crystal Globe over Klæbo after Klæbo’s greatest World Cup season of all time. Granted it took Klæbo dropping out of the Tour de Ski and a serious illness to defeat him by less than 100 points, it showed that someone who is not Bolshunov is able to do it. Amundsen himself had some illness issues in 2024, which led him to only finishing fifth in the Overall. Still, his six victories marked a career high, and if he had finished the Tour de Ski he would’ve certainly finished second in the final standings. If someone is to defeat Klæbo this season, Amundsen is the most likely.

Federico Pellegrino (ITA, 35)

The second greatest sprinter of all time has turned himself into an all-around threat in the late stages of his career. Pellegrino earned a podium in a skiathlon during the Tour de Ski in 2025 and was a tactical blunder away from doing the same thing at the World Championships. With the Olympics in his home nation of Italy, it remains to be seen whether Pellegrino will focus on the Sprint and Team Sprint this season, or if he will continue to develop his distance skiing with the hopes of sneaking onto the podium in the skiathlon. If it is the latter and he has the World Cup starts, Pellegrino could land his second-ever Overall World Cup podium.

Edvin Anger (SWE, 23)

Standing 6'4" and nearly 220 lbs, Anger’s large presence and personality was felt both on the race course and the results sheet. A much-welcome departure from growing Norwegian dominance and fading Swedish influence on the circuit, Anger became a major player last season by finishing second in the Overall and becoming just the second Swede since Marcus Hellner in 2017 to win a World Cup race.

While initially known for his size and sprinting prowess, Anger showed much-improved distance skiing in 2025 by improving from 43rd to 13th in the Distance World Cup and easily won the U-23 Crystal Globe. It will be hard for Anger to ever win the Overall World Cup given his size and the oversized influence of the Tour de Ski Final Climb on World Cup standings, but should the stars align it may be possible as soon as this season.

Erik Valnes (NOR, 29)

Like Anger, Valnes first came into the World Cup scene as a polar bear-sized sprinter with a terrific junior pedigree and a fiery personality. Since then Valnes has not only solidified himself as oftentimes the second-best sprinter in the world, but has also developed into an elite distance skier who has shown he belongs on the Norwegian relay team and can be on the Overall World Cup podium as he has done two years in a row now. Valnes is not likely to ever win the Overall for two reasons, however. The first is that the Tour de Ski is a weak point for him (last season he finished 28th on the final climb). The other is that Norway’s dominance means he does not get starts in distance freestyle races, and by that I mean he had zero starts in that discipline in 2025. Look for a similar 2026 for Valnes with perhaps more emphasis on classic as he will likely be the leadoff leg for the Norwegians, and it is also the technique for the Sprint.

Ladies

Jessie Diggins (USA, 34)

Jessie Diggins remains a magnet for the Crystal Globe and tops the prediction list for the ladies. Her performance last season was one of the better of all time in terms of accumulating points. Although one cannot assume the same level of performance, remaining near the top of the leaderboards and higher comparative start rate than her competitors means that Diggins is the woman to beat this season. In terms of how she can be beaten:

1. Higher start rate by the Swedish women. This is unlikely. Not only do the Swedes tend to try to peak for the championships by having their top skiers miss much of the middle of the season, their women have had consistent injury issues in recent years. I’m not expecting any of their top skiers to be lining up for the Alpe Cermis to win the Tour de Ski in January.

2. Injuries. Diggins had foot issues last season that kept her from classic racing in the middle of the season. If those injuries persist, the USA coaches might pull her from races in preparation for the Olympics. Last season’s World Championships were a disaster for Diggins that she will not want to repeat. I would not be surprised if they try a different preparation for the Olympics from what they did before Worlds last season given this is her final season ever.

Jonna Sundling (SWE, 30)

Since Therese Johaug retired at the end of last season, Sundling is the best female skier in the world right now. Not only does she have the highest Elo rating, but her 2025 campaign consisted of four victories in only 14 starts and only finishing outside the top 10 in the first race of the season. Sundling has shown that she is the best sprinter in the world (and perhaps ever), and when she is peaking, on equal footing with the best distance skiers. This was on full display in the 4x7.5km relay where she gobbled up an enormous Norwegian lead in the anchor leg and took home gold for the Swedes.

Why then is Sundling not the favorite to win the Crystal Globe? Availability. Sundling is perhaps the most picky with her starts in the entire field to peak for February and March, and it’s hard to argue with her approach. In her career she has never finished higher than sixth in the Overall and third in the Sprint. Do not expect her to change that recipe this season, but if it is a race to the bottom among the women’s field in order to peak for the Olympics, there is no better skier than Sundling to win the whole thing.

Kerttu Niskanen (FIN, 37)

While her brother Iivo has gotten most of the press throughout their careers, in the last couple of seasons the elder Niskanen has outshined her brother. Niskanen finished third Overall in 2023 and 2025, and won the Distance World Cup in 2023. Moreover, she consistently picks up five distance podiums per season, consistently finds herself in the heats for sprints, and has drastically improved her freestyle skiing. In 2025 at the age of 36, she podiumed—twice—in freestyle races for the first time in her 18-season career. Like Diggins, Niskanen tends to have a higher attendance rate in the World Cup and does the Tour de Ski every season. It is unclear whether her approach will be different this season since it may be her final Olympics, but Niskanen will be a contender for at least a podium in the Overall.

Frida Karlsson (SWE, 26)

Karlsson suffers from the same affliction of availability as the rest of the Swedes when it comes to competing for the Crystal Globe. 2025 was a great example of this where an injured Karlsson only competed in five World Cup races, but still managed fourth, third, and first—her first-ever gold—in her individual races in Trondheim. Given the delta between 2025 where she rested and prepared for the championships, and 2023 where she dramatically won the Tour de Ski and needed to be medically evacuated from the top of the mountain before having a worse Worlds compared to her teammate Ebba Andersson, it will be expected that Karlsson goes more with the 2025 approach for Milano-Cortina.

Astrid Øyre Slind (NOR, 37)

At the age of 37, Astrid Øyre Slind had her best-ever World Cup season. She finished fourth in the Overall and second in the Distance. Moreover, Slind has demonstrated that the fast-twitch muscles are not gone by being able to make the heats in the Sprint when she suits up no matter how seldom that is. However, I would not expect Slind to have the racing schedule she had in 2025. Between racing nearly every weekend, including finishing second in the Tour de Ski behind Johaug, and the marathons, Slind appeared burnt out in Trondheim. Slind failed to gain an individual medal and only finished 10th in the 50km, a distance many expected her to finish first or second with Johaug. Look for Slind to be in the top five of the Overall, but not make a push to win it.

World Cup Odds Predictions

Men

Once again, Klæbo is the clear odds favorite with Amundsen, Valnes, and Pellegrino behind.

Win

Top-3

Top-10

Ladies

Diggins is the favorite with Niskanen, Heidi Weng, and the Swedes as the other skiers that will contend.

Win

Top-3

Top-10

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