Introduction
Retirements, (possibly) no Russians, and Olympic rings. The 2025-26 FIS Cross-Country season is here with lots to discuss! In this post, I will give my predictions for the upcoming World Cup season based on historical relationships between Elo scores and World Cup points.
The scope of this post is just the individual World Cup season. The Tour de Ski and Olympics will have their own prediction posts shortly before they come around.
Outside the Races
Schedule
Nothing is too far out of the ordinary this World Cup season with one exception: the final World Cup weekend in Lake Placid! After the smashing success of the Minneapolis World Cup along with successful lobbying efforts from New York state and US Ski and Snowboard, Lake Placid will host world-class cross-country skiing for the first time since the 1980 Winter Olympics. Additionally, Drammen city sprints and the Holmenkollen 50km are back after a hiatus in 2025. Besides those changes, it appears to be a pretty standard season. One interesting part of the schedule is that they will be racing in Val di Fiemme twice in 2026. Two races at the end of the Tour de Ski, and then they will return for the Winter Olympics. Moreover, the Tour de Ski is possibly the tamest it has ever been. Only two venues (both in Italy), only 6 races with the longest being 15km Classic Pursuit, and a 5km Freestyle mass start thrown in, it appears they are hoping for maximum participation with the expectation that people will skip it for the Olympics.
In terms of what’s on the schedule, this is the breakdown:
- Total races: 27
- Sprint: 11
- Classic: 5
- Freestyle: 6
- Distance: 19
- Classic: 9
- Freestyle: 8
- Skiathlon: 2
- Individual: 9
- Mass Start: 9
- Pursuit: 1
- Classic: 14
- Freestyle: 14
Nothing too crazy here, but a couple of things to note. There are two skiathlons in the World Cup season; in the past there has been one at most. Here is how it compares to last year:
- Total races: 27
- Sprint: 11
- Classic: 5
- Freestyle: 6
- Distance: 16
- Classic: 6
- Freestyle: 8
- Skiathlon: 2
- Individual: 7
- Mass Start: 8
- Pursuit: 1
- Classic: 11
- Freestyle: 14
And for proportions of overall races between this season, last season, and the last 5 seasons on average.
| Category | 2024-25 | 2023-24 | 2019-2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Races | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sprint | 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| Sprint Classic | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| Sprint Freestyle | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| Distance | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| Distance Classic | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| Distance Freestyle | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Distance Skiathlon | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Distance Individual | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Distance Mass Start | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| Distance Pursuit | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Classic | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| Freestyle | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.51 |
This season appears to be more sprint-heavy than last year, but normal across the board when compared to 2021-2025 with the exception of techniques performed. The 2025-26 season will feature fewer classic-only races than a typical season by roughly two races and one more skiathlon. Furthermore, likely due to it being an Olympic year, there are fewer races than a typical season. The 2025-26 season has only 27 races. 2023 to 2025 had 30, 33, and 30, respectively.