2025-26 Biathlon Preview Part 3: Breakthrough

Breakthrough Potential

In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to breakthrough this year.

By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 40% of the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2016, this has only been done by 24 men and 25 women. For this analysis, I looked at the characteristics (age, experience, Elos, etc.) of all skiers who broke that 40% barrier for the first time in their career, and then created a model to apply to the current skiers who have not accomplished the feat. Here are some of the top contenders.

Last season Eric Perrot and Oceane Michelon were the two skiers who had breakthrough performances.

Men

Campbell Wright (USA, 23)

It’s hard to say that Campbell Wright did not have a breakout season in 2025 with his two silver medals at Worlds, but if we’re going off the 40% rule, he still has some work to do in 2026. Wright has improved steadily each season and finished 2025 17th in points and the winner of the U-23 competition. If he wants to jump to breakout levels he needs better results out of the World Championships as he still does not have a World Cup podium.

Martin Uldal (NOR, 24)

One good thing Uldal has going for him is that the Bø brothers’ retirements will result in more starts for him on a stacked Norwegian roster. While only racing roughly two-thirds of the time, Uldal was able to finish the season in 11th with a World Cup victory in Le Grand Bornand. Look for one of Uldal, Sørum, or Frey to break out this season.

Niklas Hartweg (SUI, 25)

Hartweg seemed poised after 2023 to be a star in biathlon after he finished 11th in the Overall. However, the Swiss skier missed much of 2024 and performed poorly when he competed. 2025 saw some glimpses of the Hartweg of two years prior, but he still finished 18th in the Overall. If he is to break out this season, he needs to be more consistently in the top 10 of his races. Luckily, he will be in no danger of missing starts due to the lack of depth on the Swiss team.

Vebjørn Sørum (NOR, 27)

While Sørum may not be as young as Uldal or Frey, he also did not get many starts until the 2025 season. However, he did make the most of the starts he was given by finishing 9th in the World Cup. On paper he should get more starts this season, which will allow him to grow as a biathlete and possibly become a fixture on the Norwegian team for seasons to come. If he wishes to do so, there is no better way to do it than getting 40% of the possible World Cup points like all the regular Norwegian biathletes have done in recent seasons.

Honorable Mentions

Justus Strelow, Emilien Claude, Viteslav Hornig, Isak Frey, Vitalii Mandzyn

Ladies

Jeanne Richard (FRA, 23)

The French women got even deeper in 2025 with the additions of Oceane Michelon and Richard. Michelon already hit the 40% threshold in 2025 and finished 5th in the Overall, and Richard finished just under at 39.9%, which placed her in 6th. Any improvement whatsoever from the 23-year-old will result in breakthrough status, joining Braisaz-Bouchet, Simon, Jeanmonnot, and Michelon on a stacked French roster.

Selina Grotian (GER, 21)

2025 was a terrific season for German ladies’ biathlon for the first time since probably 2018. Franziska Preuss shocked everyone by winning the Crystal Globe, and Selina Grotian, often billed as the next big thing in German biathlon, finished 9th at the age of 20. Grotian may have the most upside of anyone on this breakthrough list, but progress in biathlon is often not linear. If she is more consistent in 2026 (lots of finishes outside the top 30 in 2025), there is a great chance that Grotian contends for a top-5 finish in the Overall.

Maren Kirkeeide (NOR, 22)

After the retirements of Marte Olsbu Røiseland and Tiril Eckhoff, and a year of regression for Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold, Maren Kirkeeide was the glimmer of hope that Norwegian fans needed for their women’s side. Kirkeeide moved from 54th in the Overall to 10th and earned a bronze in the Mass Start at Worlds. Another year of progress for Kirkeeide will do wonders for a Norwegian team that lacks the top-end talent that they usually possess.

Suvi Minkkinen (FIN, 30)

Seven years older than the next oldest person on this list, Suvi Minkkinen may have shown the most improvement by moving from 42nd to 7th in the Overall standings. Minkkinen is the best Finnish biathlete since Kaisa Mäkäräinen and will hopefully build off her unexpectedly good 2025 season. If Minkkinen is to reach the next level, she will need more podium finishes as it will be hard to be more consistent than she was in 2025.

Honorable Mentions

Marketa Davidova, Vanessa Voigt, Amy Baserga, Tereza Vobornikova, Anna Magnusson

---

• ← Previous Post
• Next Post →