Breakthrough Potential
In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to breakthrough this year.
By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 20% of the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2016, this has only been done by around 20 men and 23 women. For this analysis, I looked at the characteristics (age, experience, Elos, etc.) of all skiers who broke that 20% barrier for the first time in their career, and then created a model to apply to the current skiers who have not accomplished the feat. Here are some of the top contenders.
Last season Edvin Anger and Astrid Øyre Slind were the breakthroughs.
Men
Atle Lie McGrath (NOR)
McGrath, 25, has been improving steadily each season and last season placed 7th Overall with one Slalom victory and five other podium finishes, a career high. He also earned a Silver behind Loic Meillard at the World Championships, his first ever championship podium. Known mostly for Slalom races, McGrath has improved in Giant Slalom the last two seasons. Being one of the younger skiers on the circuit, McGrath seems poised as a favorite to breakout this season.
Alexander Steen Olsen (NOR)
Olsen, 24, is another Norwegian technical expert who appears on the verge of World Cup domination. His 2025 season had two Giant Slalom victories, and one additional podium. While he found himself near the top of the Giant Slalom standings at the end of the year (4th), his Slalom lacks the consistency needed to be higher on the Overall standings. If he takes a leap forward this season, expect Olsen to contend for some Crystal Globe trophies.
Alexis Monney (SUI)
Monney, 25, burst onto the scene in 2025, finishing the season with a Downhill victory in Bormio, and 4 additional podium finishes. Additionally, he walked away with a bronze in the Downhill at the World Championships. Monney finished the season 9th Overall and 3rd in the Downhill. With another year of experience, Monney could find himself as the heir apparent to Beat Feuz and Marco Odermatt as Swiss skiers who dominate the speed races.
Honorable Mentions
Cameron Alexander, Stefan Rogentin, James Crawford
Ladies
Paula Moltzan (USA)
It seems strange to put Moltzan, a 31 year old who has been on the World Cup since 2015, on this list given how she has been a regular on the circuit. However consistent she has been, 2025 was the best season she has had to date. With two World Cup podiums and a Bronze in the Giant Slalom at Worlds to her name, Moltzan is a late bloomer in her ski career. By getting consistent results at the top of races in both Slalom and Giant Slalom, it would not be a stretch for Moltzan to break 20% of possible World Cup points this season after having 16.2% in 2025.
Kajsa Vickhoff Lie (NOR)
Like Moltzan, Lie has been a consistent skier in her disciplines for the previous few seasons, but has lacked the wins and podiums to be in Crystal Globe contention. However, she has shown ability to put herself on the podium and just needs a couple more in a season to break the 20%. At 27 years old, she is entering the prime of her career just as many of the speed specialists are entering their mid-30s. I’d expect Lie to get more podiums this season.
Lara Colturi (ALB)
The most obvious person to have on this list, Colturi was already so close to reaching 20% last season (19.4%) as only an 18 year old. This season she will be one year more mature and will hopefully add more podiums to the 3 she had in 2025. If she avoids as many outside the top-10 finishes in Slalom in 2026, Colturi will likely be added to the list of 23 women who have had breakout seasons since 2016.
Honorable Mentions
Valerie Grenier, Ester Ledecka, Mina Fürst Holtmann