Nordic Numbers

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Race Picks for 2025-03-30

Posted by Syver Johansen on Sunday, March 30, 2025

Weekly recap for 2025-03-30

Posted by Syver Johansen on Sunday, March 30, 2025

Davos 2025 Recap

Introduction Merry Christmas everyone! The winners from this weekend were largely Norwegian for men and German for ladies. Tough go of it for French men (minus Chanavat), and Rosie Brennan for women. Klæbo is still likely to win the overall (although getting less everyday), and Diggins takes over Sundling as the favorite for women. Race 1 (Sprint Freestyle) Skier Nation Before Elo After Elo Elo Difference Predicted Points Points Points Difference Johannes Høsflot Klæbo Norway 1781.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Monday, December 23, 2024

Lillehammer 2025 Recap

Introduction Week two is done. Race 1 (Distance Freestyle) Skier Nation Before Elo After Elo Elo Difference Predicted Points Points Points Difference Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget Norway 1651.92594971184 1731.36492222398 79.4389725121366 78.6182848308447 100 21.3817151691553 Simen Hegstad Krüger Norway 1671.20440356934 1739.24706324692 68.0426596775728 79.2577495454879 95 15.7422504545121 Harald Østberg Amundsen Norway 1685.41865104171 1743.9800305709 58.561379529189 85.810931718363 90 4.18906828163701 Iver Tildheim Andersen Norway 1496.41633498137 1625.27835816916 128.862023187794 59.0014107425476 85 25.9985892574524 Andreas Fjorden Ree Norway 1512.15777900075 1628.55626026251 116.398481261758 63.1791516147019 80 16.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Sunday, December 8, 2024

Cross-Country Skiing Season Simulation Results

Men’s Results Top 10 Current Standings (Men) Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (592 points) Harald Østberg Amundsen (688 points) Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget (501 points) Erik Valnes (382 points) Simen Hegstad Krüger (436 points) Pål Golberg (290 points) Iivo Niskanen (381 points) Andreas Fjorden Ree (374 points) Federico Pellegrino (331 points) Jan Thomas Jenssen (256 points) Projected Final Top 10 (Men) Johannes Høsflot Klæbo (2441 points, 98.6% win probability) Harald Østberg Amundsen (2230 points, 1.

Posted by Nordic Numbers on Saturday, December 7, 2024

Ruka 2025 Recap

Introduction Week one is done! Check out who did well and who was a turkey. Race 1 (Distance Classic) Skier Nation Before Elo After Elo Elo Difference Predicted Points Points Points Difference Iivo Niskanen Finland 1611.03276572988 1692.81440880288 81.7816430729986 81.3556766551174 100 18.6443233448826 Harald Østberg Amundsen Norway 1571.73107665196 1663.54977473743 91.8186980854778 80.062574445691 95 14.937425554309 Martin Løwstrøm Nyenget Norway 1613.9722562015 1684.69855337405 70.7262971725424 88.0661242064344 90 1.9338757935656 Johannes Høsflot Klæbo Norway 1645.3902636527 1700.43540421069 55.0451405579904 98.1697963436268 85 -13.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Sunday, December 1, 2024

Ruka 2025 Predictions

Introduction Welcome to the first race of the season. In this post and more to follow, I will present the likely starting list for the weekend as well as race by race predictions for odds as well as expected points Sources Overall: https://xcancel.com/FantasyXC Canada https://proxcskiing.com/traditional-skiing/ Czechia : https://www.czech-ski.com/beh-na-lyzich/aktuality https://www.facebook.com/@czeskisnowboard/ Finland: svenska.yle.fi/a/7-10067960 https://yle.fi/a/74- https://www.facebook.com/xcteamfinland France https://ffs.fr/actualites/ Germany DSV Nordic Facebook Page (https://www.facebook.com/DSVNordisch) https://www.deutscherskiverband.de/skilanglauf Italy: https://fisi.org/ Norway https://langrenn.com/langrenn-allround/ https://www.skiforbundet.no/langrenn/nyhetsarkiv/ Sweden https://langd.se/traditionell-langdakning/ Switzerland https://www.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Thursday, November 28, 2024

2024-25 Preview Part 3: Breakthrough and Age Analysis

Breakthrough Potential In Part 3, I will be going over the skiers most likely to breakthrough this year, give an age analysis of the field, and predict what it will take for Klæbo to lose the overall World Cup. By breakthrough I mean people who score more than 50% of the the maximum possible World Cup points in a given season. Since 2002, this has only been done by 41 men and 62 women.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Sunday, November 17, 2024

2024-25 Preview Part 2: World Cup Standings

World Cup Standings Predictions Background In Part 2, I will be giving the overall standings predictions as a proportion of maximum World Cup points as well as the odds for each skier to get top-1, 3, 5, 10, and 30 in the overall World Cup. The Elo data is calculated from race data going back to 1920. Race data includes World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Winter Games as well as a handful of Holmenkollen races prior to the World Cup era that began in 1982.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Saturday, November 16, 2024

2024-25 Preview Part 1: Introduction & Schedule

2024-25 Season Preview Introduction It’s near Thanksgiving time and you know what that means. The 2024-25 FIS Cross Country season is here! In this post, I will give my predictions for the upcoming World Cup season based on historical relationships between Elo scores and World Cup points. The scope of this post is just the individual World Cup season. The World Championships will have a post of their own when late February comes around.

Posted by Syver Johansen on Friday, November 15, 2024

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Bored Data Scientist in Washington DC. Perenniel American Birkebeiner skier, and devout club runner

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